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About the OSRS Dry Calculator
Enter a drop rate and your kill count to see how dry you are: the share of players who would have the drop by now, your chance of still having none, and the kill counts for a 50%, 90%, 95% and 99% chance.
How to use the OSRS Dry Calculator
- Type the drop rate in any common form: 1/5000, 1 in 512, 3/128, 0.0002 or 0.02%. The chips fill common rates.
- Enter your kill count.
- Read the chance you would have the drop by now and the chance of still being dry.
- Check the milestones and the curve to see where your KC sits.
How the numbers are worked out
- Each kill is an independent roll at the rate you entered. Chance of at least one drop = 1 - (1 - 1/N)^KC.
- Still dry is the chance of zero drops by that KC. It is also the share of players who are as dry as you.
- The KC for a 90% chance is the smallest kill count where the chance of at least one drop reaches 90%.
- Raid purples and other loot that does not roll 1/N per kill need their own tools, such as the raids calculator.
Frequently asked questions
How dry am I at 2x the drop rate?
At twice the drop rate in kills, about 86.5% of players would have the drop. For 1/5,000 at 10,000 KC, 86.5% would have it, and if you do not, only 13.5% of players are as dry as you.
Am I due a drop after a dry streak?
No. Each roll is independent, so past kills do not raise your next chance. A few items have bad luck protection, such as Vorkath's head on the 50th kill and the ToA thread and jewels. This calculator does not model those.
How many kills for a 90% chance at a drop?
About 2.3 times the drop rate. At 1/512 that is 1,178 kills, and at 1/5,000 it is 11,512.
What drop rate formats can I enter?
Fractions like 1/512 or 3/128, 1 in 512, decimals like 0.0002 and percentages like 0.02%.
What is the chance of getting a drop at the drop rate?
About 63.2%. After 512 kills at 1/512, 63.2% of players have at least one drop and 36.8% are still dry.
Related tools
Drop Rate CalculatorCalculate the probability of receiving a drop at least once, exactly X times, or X or more times.
RNG CalculatorCompare your drop count with every player at the same kill count: how many you are luckier and drier than, and your expected drops.
Collection LogEnter your kill count and what you have from a boss to see how lucky or dry each collection log slot is.
